14. Domestic Holiday Tourism
MD Agnew

Number of holiday trips, involving at least one night away from home, taken each year by British residents within Great Britain shown in relation to July temperatures in Central England

Specific Indicator
The British Tourist Authority conducts an annual UK Tourist Survey, based on a random sample of adult British residents. Different categories of tourism are distinguished. The specific indicator chosen for its sensitivity to climate is the number of trips taken each year by British residents within England, Wales and Scotland for 'holiday or pleasure/leisure' purposes. To be counted, a trip must include at least one night spent away from home.
[Source: The UK Tourist, available from British Tourist Authority, Thames Tower, Black's Rd., London]

Relevance
During 1994-95, 16% of average household expenditure went on leisure goods and services. Of this proportion, 62.2% was spent on hotel and holiday expenses, an average of £28.22 per week. The number of people employed in tourist-related industries in Great Britain during September 1996 was 1.7 million and, during 1996, 127 million domestic tourist trips were taken in the UK, valued at £13,895 million. These are significant considerations for planning in the tourist industry. With an indication of likely climate-related trends in tourist volumes, decision-makers should be better equipped to manage transport, catering and accommodation requirements more effectively.

Sensitivity to climatic and other factors
Weather has strong influences on tourism and can affect decision-making in two main ways. First, the choice of main holiday destination (whether to stay at home or travel abroad) may be influenced by a run of fine or inclement weather, which motivates the holiday-maker to capitalise on or escape from British conditions. Second, the domestic holiday market is likely to be influenced by short-term weather fluctuations, with fine conditions encouraging more Britons to take short-breaks and weekends away, especially for outdoor pursuits. Additional fluctuations in trips will also occur in relation to economic and social factors, such as levels of unemployment and disposable income, and trends in popular holiday destinations.

Temperature, as measured in Central England, appears to be the most important climate variable influencing annual domestic holiday tourism. The highest correlation is with autumn (Sep Oct Nov) temperature, but significant correlations are also found with temperatures in July, summer (Jun Jul Aug), October and August. Other significant climate factors are July England and Wales sunshine, winter (Dec Jan Feb) sunshine, and summer (Jun Jul Aug) rainfall. In general, summer and autumn weather seems to exert the largest impact on decision-making, while spring weather is of no apparent consequence. The clear relationship with same-year summer climate variables suggests that the character of the weather in the present year has more impact than that of the previous year (for which no correlations are significant).

Change over time
There has been little growth in the numbers of trips taken since the survey began in 1974. Over the 23-year period, there is a clear relationship between July temperatures and numbers of domestic holiday trips. This agreement seems strongest in the first and last five years of the record. However, there are several years (namely, 1980 and 1987/88) when the number of trips remained high or increased even though July temperatures were cooler than usual. August temperatures were higher than July temperatures in these years, which may partially explain these apparent anomalies.

There has been a slight decline in the total number of domestic holiday trips taken since 1995, corresponding to cooler July and August temperatures. In the long-term, the guarantee of fine holiday weather, in a generally warmer environment, would lead to a growth in both short-breaks and main holiday markets (perhaps to the detriment of tourism by UK residents overseas). The UK may also grow in popularity as a holiday destination for tourists from overseas, particularly if resorts in other countries become unpleasantly hot.