15. Scottish Skiing Industry
JP Palutikof

Number of days with lying snow each year at Braemar since 1927, and the more recent record of total ski-lift and tow passes (ski-days) sold each year at the five main Scottish skiing centres (Cairngorm, Glenshee, Nevis Range, Lecht and Glencoe).

Specific indicator
The specific indicator is the number of ski-lift and tow passes (number of ski-days) sold each year at the five main Scottish skiing centres (Cairngorm, Glenshee, Nevis Range, Lecht and Glencoe).
[Source: Skiiing Developments, National Planning Policy Guidelines, Scottish Office, Edinburgh; snow data for Braemar are available from The Scottish Climate Office, 220 St.Vincent St., Glasgow G2 5QD]

Relevance
Skiing in Scotland is frequently cited as a recreational activity which will suffer, or even disappear, as a result of global warming. Although its contribution to the UK economy is small, it has considerable significance in the local economy of the Highlands region of Scotland. Commercial skiing centres in Scotland first opened in 1960, at Cairngorm and Glencoe. There are now over 70 chairlifts and tows available at five centres. During the period 1993-95 around 0.1 million trips each year were taken in Scotland purely for the purpose of skiing. Expenditure on these trips amounted to around £16 million per annum. It is estimated that around one-third of this income is spent on-slope, with the remainder expended off-slope on accommodation, petrol, clothing etc. This brings valuable income to the Scottish Highlands at a time of year when activity in other traditionally-important employment sectors (i.e., farming and summer tourism) is slack. Over 1000 jobs, including part-time and seasonal employment, are estimated to be supported by this expenditure.

Sensitivity to climatic and other factors
The skiing industry is obviously affected by the occurrence of snow, and hence the climate variable selected for display here is the number of days with snow lying. Snow occurrence is in turn affected by temperature. Other meteorological factors affect the industry, notably storms and high wind-speed days. For example, internal reports of the Scottish Tourist Board point to the large number of storm-bound weekends in the 1993-94 season in the Cairngorm region as reducing the number of ski-able days. Unfortunately, no data are available for the numbers of days lost due to high winds.
As with all aspects of the tourist industry, skiing in Scotland is vulnerable to trends in employment and disposable income, but also to fashions in skiing location.

The number of ski-days over the skiing season is closely positively correlated with the number of days with snow lying at Braemar (which lies close to the main skiing area of Cairngorm).

Change over time
There are large year-to-year fluctuations in the number of Scottish ski days, but overall between 1983/4 and the most recent season there is a small downward trend. However, since the poor season of 1997/8, which was accompanied by a low number of snow days, the last four seasons have seen a recovery in ski pass numbers. Notably poor skiing seasons were 1988/9, 1989/90 and 1991/2, none of which had more than 40 days of snow lying at Braemar. However, the winter with the most snow days (1993/4) was not the most successful for the industry, because of the large number of weekend storms. The recent poor season of 1997/8 was accompanied by 43 days of snow, which is the fourth lowest value in the record since 1983/4, when ski pass data began.

The figure includes snow data back to 1928/9 - well before the skiing industry existed in Scotland. It is of interest to see that there is no long-term trend in the snow data, although there is a recent downward trend from 1993/4 to the latest year. In future we would expect that warming will reduce the number of days with snow lying, and hence the viability of the skiing industry. However, this does not necessarily follow immediately: a more active hydrological cycle in the early years of global warming might lead to more snow days, provided that the warming in winter is small enough to keep temperatures below zero.